Select Page

A big week for trade talks…Brexit enters the end game…markets in carnival mood, Elon Musk blasts off…Europe’s largest cruise ship MSC Bellissimo is launched in Southampton and it’s mardi gras week with Pancake Tuesday in the UK, Las Fallas in Spain, and of course the Rio festival.

In the reporting season last week, if UK CEO’s were nervous about Britain leaving the EU they certainly weren’t showing it in their results which have been generally upbeat…

In industrials Warren East ROLLS’s CEO waxed lyrical on a near doubling of underlying annual profits and a new generation of aero engines.  Shares continue to perform well+10% in the last 12 months (

In housebuilding, we saw CEO of Britain’s most valuable house builder PERSIMMON David Jenkinson last week and which builds 15,000 houses a year. The company has become very profitable partly thanks to the Help to Buy scheme, in 2018 the first UK housebuilder to pass £1bn in profits. (source MSN)

In airlines IAG boss Willie Walsh was openly dismissive of fears about “planes not flying” after Brexit, citing the Open Skies agreement as he reported a 10% rise in profits to €3.2bn (source Market Watch)

On Brexit, once we have left the European Union next month what are the politics tragics going to talk about? Perhaps we can get on to important things like building out a proper infrastructure, investing in manufacturing and technology, funding education and health and restoring UK productivity…though interestingly what the Jeremiahs won’t mention is the fact that EU investment has doubled since the Brexit vote on 23 June 2016…

Party time in Southampton at the w/e at the launch of Italy’s largest ever cruise ship…MSC Bellissima weighed in at a staggering 171,000 tons and was launched at the cost of $1bn…the ship carries 5,000 passengers…a meeting with SOMEC’s management at the Star LSE sponsored bi-annual conference, a company that makes much of the liner’s glass structures backed up just how well the global cruise ship market is doing…


On the other side of the pond, Trumpie having returned from meeting Rocket Boy in Hanoi and missing Michael Cohen’s exocets on Capitol Hill, was back in his element at the w/e at the Republican conflab in Maryland…2 hours of giving it large about Democrats wanting to abolish cars, cows and planes, usual run of the mill stuff from DT to his base…

Trump is now firmly in control of the Republican Party –

Acquiescence to Trump overwhelms and at times erases principles that conservatives viewed as GOP’s foundation for more than a half-century.

He then having given Mueller and Sessions both barrels he turned to his favourite two topics, golf and the Federal Reserve weaving them into the same sentence by claiming “ the Fed is like a golfer who can’t putt…”which may or may not be true. The President’s other claim that his Aberdeen golf course is the best golf course in Scotland I would dispute, preferring Gullane myself but each to their own ????

He also couldn’t resist having another swipe at the global warming crowd, saying he didn’t want to see “windmills” and the climate change consensus is certainly having its work cut out as the populists gain ground on both sides of the Atlantic.

Europe’s Populist Right Threatens to Erode Climate Consensus – Bloomberg

Europe’s consensus in favor of curbing greenhouse gas emissions is weakening due to rising support for right-wing populists, many of whom cast doubt over whether people bear the responsibility …

Certainly no worries about global warming from Elon Musk who clearly combines trying to save the planet by selling “green, battery powered” cars with recarbonising it seeing his Space X blasting off burning an estimated 440 tonnes of fuel during flight


Talking of rockets, markets continue to point up as the tortuous Brexit end game nears and Trump and Xi get closer to a deal on trade…we remain constructive on high yield, corporate fixed income and income paying equities…we also continue to like China, the stock market there up 10% last week alone and 25% ytd and selectively commodities and property…

Ian Cowie: You trust in the party, comrade. I’ll put my faith in consumers | Money | The Sunday Times

China’s weighting in the MSCI is about to quadruple from 0.7% to 3%…we’re at 6% at South River so well exposed…the Shanghai Composite’s +25% ytd.

That’s it, sticking with the party theme, three big European festivals going on this week ahead of the Lenten fast which starts on Wednesday.

Las Fallas in Spain…


Pancake Tuesday in the UK…

pancake_happy tuesday

And of course, the major mardi gras festival in Rio


Have a good week!!!

The information on this site is not available for private investors and is restricted to Professional Investors.

South River Asset Management Ltd is registered in England and Wales (Number 04195976). South River Asset Management Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK, with its registered office at 1 King Street, London, EC2V 8AU. The information on this website is directed only to eligible professional investors. Please satisfy yourself that you are eligible to make such investments before accessing this information. You must read the following information before proceeding, as it enables the legal and regulatory restrictions which apply to both the information contained and investment products referred to within this website. To enter this website your browser must have cookies enabled or you will not be aware of important regulatory information. The information on this website constitutes a financial promotion and has been issued and approved by South River Asset Management Ltd for the purpose of Section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000  and does not, in any way, constitute investment legal or taxation advice. South River Asset Management Ltd’s details are set out in the FCA register and our FRN number is 197097. You hereby agree that any dispute arising from your use of this website or the information it contains, will be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the English Courts. This website is confidential, and no part of it may be reproduced, distributed or transmitted without the prior written permission of South River Asset Management Ltd. Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide for the future. Returns from the structured products are at risk in the event of any of the institutions who provide securities for these products default on their financial obligations. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the relevant term sheet or prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product which includes information on certain risks associated with an investment.

This website does not disclose all the risks and other significant issues related to an investment in the securities. Prior to transacting potential investors should ensure that they fully understand the terms of the securities and any applicable risks. Neither this website nor any documents contained within it constitutes an offer or solicitation to sell in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities law of that jurisdiction. The material contained within is purely for information purposes and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. By accessing this website you represent that you are permitted by the laws of your jurisdiction of residence to access this site and the information contained herein. This website is not intended for residents of the United States as we are not authorised to sell our products and services in the USA.